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    Asymmetric and non-linear pass-through effect of exchange rate on inflation: Evidence from the Fragile Five countries
    (Elsevier B.V., 2026) Akbas, Yusuf Ekrem; Radulescu, Magdalena; Şit, Ahmet; Belascu, Lucian
    This study aims to analyze the possible asymmetric and non-linear effects of exchange rate and interest rate on different inflation components in the Fragile Five countries over the period 1980–2023 by using the panel smooth transition regression and panel non-linear ARDL model. As a result of the analysis, in pass-through model where the exchange rate is the threshold variable, it is found that the exchange rate positively affects the consumer prices index and the producer prices index in the high exchange rate regime, but the impact on the consumer prices index is higher. On the other hand, in model where the threshold variable is the interest rate, it is determined that the interest rate negatively affects the consumer prices index and the producer prices index in both the high-interest rate regime and the low-interest rate regime, and this effect is higher on the consumer prices index. © 2026 The Authors.
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    Economic and financial stability under uncertainty in the US: insights from Fourier analysis
    (Routledge Journals, Taylor & Francis Ltd, 2026) Polat, Mehmet Ali; Akbas, Yusuf Ekrem; Sancar, Canan; Sit, Ahmet
    In the aftermath of the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, the occurrence of financial turmoil even in developed economies has sparked renewed debates on financial stability and caused the rise of the relevance of the variables employed to represent financial stability, which has gained increasing importance in the literature. This study investigates the impact of economic stability and uncertainty on financial stability in the United States over the period 1970 to 2022. Financial stability is proxied by the index developed by Owoundi, Mbassi, and Owoundi (2021), while economic stability is captured through the International Country Risk Guide (ICRG 2014) index. The relationship among the variables is examined using the Fourier methodology. The empirical findings reveal that economic stability exerts a positive influence on financial stability, whereas economic uncertainty negatively affects financial stability only in the long run. The causality analysis further indicates a unidirectional causal flow from economic stability and economic uncertainty to financial stability, in line with the coefficient estimates. Additionally, the results demonstrate bidirectional linkages between financial stability and economic stability.