Yazar "Doganlar, Murat" seçeneğine göre listele

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    How Geopolitical Risks Influence Real Exchange Rate Dynamics in Turkiye? Evidence from Fourier Cointegration Test with Non-Normal Errors
    (Editura Ase, 2025) Doganlar, Murat; Mike, Faruk; Kizilkaya, Oktay; Akyildiz, Ibrahim Ethem
    Turkiye is one of the countries that directly and significantly affected by geopolitical risks due to its strategic location. However, the impact of these risks on the real exchange rate-one of the key determinants of macroeconomic stability-remains unclear. This study aims to address this gap in the literature by examining the effects of geopolitical risks on real exchange rate dynamics in Turkiye. In doing so, it also considers essential factors such as terms of trade, real interest rates, and productivity, which are fundamental components of real exchange rate models. The analysis covers quarterly data from 2000:Q] to 2024:Q] and employs the newly developed RALS Fourier ADL cointegration test, which offers a robust methodological framework. The findings reveal that geopolitical risks causes to depreciation in Turkiye's real exchange rate. Specifically, heightened geopolitical risks lead to capital outflows as investors postpone investment decisions, disrupt portfolio investments, and create inflationary pressures. These dynamics result in higher demand for foreign exchange, ultimately driving up the real exchange rate. The study highlights the crucial role of geopolitical risks in modelling Turkiye's real exchange rate. If policymakers estimate exchange rates without accounting for these risks, their assessments may yield misleading results.
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    Temperature, Precipitation and Economic Growth: The Case of the Most Polluting Countries
    (Springer Int Publ Ag, 2024) Doganlar, Murat; Mike, Faruk; Kizilkaya, Oktay; Kardaslar, Ahmet
    This study analyzes the impact of climate change on economic growth for the top 20 countries in the world that cause the most carbon emissions. Following the Cobb-Douglas production function, we investigate the long-run relationships between temperature/precipitation and economic growth, capital stock, labor force, and productivity using static and dynamic panel data analyses for the period 1990-2019. The results from three different models are examined. Linear model test results reveal that temperature and precipitation do not have statistically any significant impact on economic growth in these countries. Nonlinear model test results indicate that the primary impact of temperature on economic growth is positive and statistically significant, whereas the secondary impact is negative and statistically significant. However, precipitation does not have any statistically significant impact on economic growth. Finally, the results of nonlinear model without control variables are similar to those of nonlinear model. The Dumitrescu and Hurlin panel causality test is also performed to check the consistency of static and dynamic panel estimations, and the results indicate bidirectional causality between temperature and economic growth but no causal relationship between precipitation and economic growth in these countries. Investigated the long-run relationship between economic growth and climate change.Included the most polluting 20 countries in the world.Negative impact of temperature on economic growth was determined.Any significant effect of precipitation on economic growth was determined.
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    The innovation exodus: how Turkiye's brain drain challenges technological progress
    (Routledge Journals, Taylor & Francis Ltd, 2025) Mike, Faruk; Akyildiz, Ibrahim Ethem; Doganlar, Murat; Kizilkaya, Oktay
    Brain drain refers to the emigration of highly educated individuals to other countries in pursuit of better professional, academic, or economic opportunities. This phenomenon differs from human capital, which denotes the proportion of university graduates within the total domestic population and reflects the overall skill level and innovation potential of the resident workforce. This study examines the long-run effects of brain drain on technological advancement in Turkiye, using annual data from 1990 to 2022. By employing Fourier ADL and RALS Fourier ADL cointegration techniques, the study provides robust empirical evidence on the adverse impact of brain drain on Turkiye's innovation ecosystem. The results indicate that brain drain significantly impedes technological progress by depleting the domestic talent pool, thereby weakening research and development (R&D) capacity. Specifically, the negative and statistically significant effects of R&D expenditures and total patent applications - two key indicators of technological innovation - on brain drain are confirmed. Conversely, economic growth, human capital accumulation, and trade openness positively contribute to technological advancement, suggesting that Turkiye's integration into global markets may partially offset the negative consequences of talent migration. Potential policy measures include incentivizing the return migration of skilled professionals, strengthening research institutions, and fostering collaborations between the diaspora and domestic enterprises.