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    Does geopolitical risk escalate environmental degradation in Turkey? Evidence from a Fourier approach
    (Springer, 2026) Kizilkaya, Fatma; Kizilkaya, Oktay; Mike, Faruk
    This study examines the long-run impacts of geopolitical risk on carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in Turkey using Shin and Fourier Shin cointegration methods for yearly observations from 1985 to 2019. The cointegration test results reveal a long-run relation between CO2 emissions and geopolitical risk, economic growth, renewable energy, and the population size in Turkey. According to dynamic ordinary least squares estimation, geopolitical risk and renewable energy consumption have negative and statistically significant impacts on CO2 emissions, whereas economic growth and population size have positive and statistically significant effects on CO2 in the long-run. This shows that increases in geopolitical risks tend to reduce CO2 emissions in Turkey, by depressing production in polluting industries as well as economic growth. In addition, the study performs TY and Fourier TY causality analyses to check for consistency (or robustness) in the cointegration results. Accordingly, the Fourier TY test results demonstrate a unidirectional relationship from geopolitical risk and population size to CO2 emissions, whereas the Toda-Yamamoto test procedure indicates no causal relationship between the series in the long run. Overall, increases in geopolitical risks decrease the rate of production and pollution in the polluting sector in Turkey. However, this also means a decrease in economic growth rates for Turkey which focuses its economic policy and strategy on sustainable growth and development. Therefore, it is very important for Turkey to immediately implement an environmental practice that will not harm its economic policies.
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    Environmental policy stringency and fossil energy trade in OECD countries
    (Springernature, 2026) Alper, Findik Ozlem; Alper, Ali Eren; Mike, Faruk; Kizilkaya, Oktay
    This study investigates the impact of environmental policy stringency on the trade of fossil fuels-including coal, oil, and natural gas-in 27 OECD countries over the period 1994-2020. Employing panel cointegration and causality techniques, the analysis incorporates non-renewable energy consumption, real effective exchange rate, and financial development as control variables. The results indicate that more stringent environmental regulations significantly reduce fossil fuel trade, suggesting potential improvements in environmental quality. In contrast, higher levels of non-renewable energy consumption and financial development are associated with increased fossil fuel trade, reflecting persistent economic-driven environmental pressures. Additionally, an appreciation in the real effective exchange rate is linked to a reduction in fossil fuel trade. These findings underscore the pivotal role of stringent environmental regulations in mitigating fossil energy trade and enhancing environmental outcomes, while also highlighting the importance of complementary macroeconomic policies and international cooperation in facilitating sustainable energy transitions.
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    How Geopolitical Risks Influence Real Exchange Rate Dynamics in Turkiye? Evidence from Fourier Cointegration Test with Non-Normal Errors
    (Editura Ase, 2025) Doganlar, Murat; Mike, Faruk; Kizilkaya, Oktay; Akyildiz, Ibrahim Ethem
    Turkiye is one of the countries that directly and significantly affected by geopolitical risks due to its strategic location. However, the impact of these risks on the real exchange rate-one of the key determinants of macroeconomic stability-remains unclear. This study aims to address this gap in the literature by examining the effects of geopolitical risks on real exchange rate dynamics in Turkiye. In doing so, it also considers essential factors such as terms of trade, real interest rates, and productivity, which are fundamental components of real exchange rate models. The analysis covers quarterly data from 2000:Q] to 2024:Q] and employs the newly developed RALS Fourier ADL cointegration test, which offers a robust methodological framework. The findings reveal that geopolitical risks causes to depreciation in Turkiye's real exchange rate. Specifically, heightened geopolitical risks lead to capital outflows as investors postpone investment decisions, disrupt portfolio investments, and create inflationary pressures. These dynamics result in higher demand for foreign exchange, ultimately driving up the real exchange rate. The study highlights the crucial role of geopolitical risks in modelling Turkiye's real exchange rate. If policymakers estimate exchange rates without accounting for these risks, their assessments may yield misleading results.
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    Temperature, Precipitation and Economic Growth: The Case of the Most Polluting Countries
    (Springer Int Publ Ag, 2024) Doganlar, Murat; Mike, Faruk; Kizilkaya, Oktay; Kardaslar, Ahmet
    This study analyzes the impact of climate change on economic growth for the top 20 countries in the world that cause the most carbon emissions. Following the Cobb-Douglas production function, we investigate the long-run relationships between temperature/precipitation and economic growth, capital stock, labor force, and productivity using static and dynamic panel data analyses for the period 1990-2019. The results from three different models are examined. Linear model test results reveal that temperature and precipitation do not have statistically any significant impact on economic growth in these countries. Nonlinear model test results indicate that the primary impact of temperature on economic growth is positive and statistically significant, whereas the secondary impact is negative and statistically significant. However, precipitation does not have any statistically significant impact on economic growth. Finally, the results of nonlinear model without control variables are similar to those of nonlinear model. The Dumitrescu and Hurlin panel causality test is also performed to check the consistency of static and dynamic panel estimations, and the results indicate bidirectional causality between temperature and economic growth but no causal relationship between precipitation and economic growth in these countries. Investigated the long-run relationship between economic growth and climate change.Included the most polluting 20 countries in the world.Negative impact of temperature on economic growth was determined.Any significant effect of precipitation on economic growth was determined.
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    The effect of globalization on environmental pollution in Turkey: A Fourier cointegration analysis
    (IGI Global, 2025) Kizilkaya, Oktay; Polat, Mehmet Ali; Babacan, Adem
    This study examined the impact of globalisation on environmental pollution in order to promote sustainable environmental quality in the Turkish economy. The results of the Fourier cointegration test show that there is a long-run relationship between the series in question. Moreover, the obtained long-run coefficients show that there is a positive relationship between globalisation and environmental pollution in Turkey. Based on the results of the study, Turkey should increase its consumption of renewable energy in the long term and reduce the use of fossil fuels in order not to be negatively affected by the globalization process. Again, Turkey needs to comply with the Paris Climate Agreement and similar international protocols that are proposed to improve the quality of the environment. The quality of the environment in Turkey can be improved by entering into a sustainable economic growth trend and by introducing environmentally friendly technologies in Turkey in the long term. © 2025 by IGI Global Scientific Publishing. All rights reserved.
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    The innovation exodus: how Turkiye's brain drain challenges technological progress
    (Routledge Journals, Taylor & Francis Ltd, 2025) Mike, Faruk; Akyildiz, Ibrahim Ethem; Doganlar, Murat; Kizilkaya, Oktay
    Brain drain refers to the emigration of highly educated individuals to other countries in pursuit of better professional, academic, or economic opportunities. This phenomenon differs from human capital, which denotes the proportion of university graduates within the total domestic population and reflects the overall skill level and innovation potential of the resident workforce. This study examines the long-run effects of brain drain on technological advancement in Turkiye, using annual data from 1990 to 2022. By employing Fourier ADL and RALS Fourier ADL cointegration techniques, the study provides robust empirical evidence on the adverse impact of brain drain on Turkiye's innovation ecosystem. The results indicate that brain drain significantly impedes technological progress by depleting the domestic talent pool, thereby weakening research and development (R&D) capacity. Specifically, the negative and statistically significant effects of R&D expenditures and total patent applications - two key indicators of technological innovation - on brain drain are confirmed. Conversely, economic growth, human capital accumulation, and trade openness positively contribute to technological advancement, suggesting that Turkiye's integration into global markets may partially offset the negative consequences of talent migration. Potential policy measures include incentivizing the return migration of skilled professionals, strengthening research institutions, and fostering collaborations between the diaspora and domestic enterprises.
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    The Role of Energy Consumption and Economic Growth on Human Development in Emerging (E-7) Countries: Fresh Evidence from Second-Generation Panel Data Analyses
    (Politechnika Lubelska, 2024) Kizilkaya, Oktay; Kizilkaya, Oktay; Akar, Gokhan; Mike, Faruk
    This study aims to examine the impacts of energy consumption and economic growth on the human development index of seven emerging countries (E-7) with high economic performance for yearly observations from 1992 to 2021. The analyses were carried out with second -generation panel data analyses: (i) Panel cointegration test with structural breaks proposed by Westerlund (2006), (ii) augmented mean group estimator recommended by Eberhardt and Bond (2009), and (iii) Dumitrescu and Hurlin (2012) panel causality test. The empirical model also included trade openness and urbanization parameters as control variables. The panel cointegration test outcomes reveal the presence of a long -run relation among the human development index and energy consumption, economic growth, urbanization, and trade openness for all countries. Augmented mean group test outcomes signify that energy consumption, economic growth, and trade openness have positive and statistically significant impacts on the human development index, whereas urbanization does not have any statistically significant impact in the longrun. Finally, panel causality test results signify that there is a bidirectional relation between the human development index and energy consumption, economic growth, and trade openness and also a unidirectional relation from urbanization to the human development index in E-7 countries. All these findings indicate that the main macroeconomic indicators have an important role on the human development index in E-7 countries. In this context, these countries should implement a more effective and innovative economic policy for Sustainable development goals.
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    Unemployment hysteresis in Central and Eastern European countries during EU-membership
    (Akademiai Kiado Zrt, 2024) Kizilkaya, Oktay; Mike, Faruk; Kizilkaya, Fatma
    This study aims to analyse the time series properties of the unemployment rates in 10 Central and Eastern European countries after joining the European Union. Three types of unit root tests were conducted: (1) linear unit root tests, namely ADF, PP, LM, and RALS-LM tests; (2) LM and RALS-LM unit root tests with two structural breaks; and (3) LM and RALS-LM unit root tests with Fourier function. The results reveal that the hysteresis hypothesis is valid for Bulgaria, Czechia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania and Slovenia, whereas the structuralist hypothesis is valid for Estonia and Poland. However, the natural rate hypothesis holds only for Slovakia.