How Geopolitical Risks Influence Real Exchange Rate Dynamics in Turkiye? Evidence from Fourier Cointegration Test with Non-Normal Errors

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dc.contributor.authorDoganlar, Murat
dc.contributor.authorMike, Faruk
dc.contributor.authorKizilkaya, Oktay
dc.contributor.authorAkyildiz, Ibrahim Ethem
dc.date.accessioned2026-06-19T06:38:03Z
dc.date.available2026-06-19T06:38:03Z
dc.date.issued2025
dc.departmentMalatya Turgut Özal Üniversitesi
dc.description.abstractTurkiye is one of the countries that directly and significantly affected by geopolitical risks due to its strategic location. However, the impact of these risks on the real exchange rate-one of the key determinants of macroeconomic stability-remains unclear. This study aims to address this gap in the literature by examining the effects of geopolitical risks on real exchange rate dynamics in Turkiye. In doing so, it also considers essential factors such as terms of trade, real interest rates, and productivity, which are fundamental components of real exchange rate models. The analysis covers quarterly data from 2000:Q] to 2024:Q] and employs the newly developed RALS Fourier ADL cointegration test, which offers a robust methodological framework. The findings reveal that geopolitical risks causes to depreciation in Turkiye's real exchange rate. Specifically, heightened geopolitical risks lead to capital outflows as investors postpone investment decisions, disrupt portfolio investments, and create inflationary pressures. These dynamics result in higher demand for foreign exchange, ultimately driving up the real exchange rate. The study highlights the crucial role of geopolitical risks in modelling Turkiye's real exchange rate. If policymakers estimate exchange rates without accounting for these risks, their assessments may yield misleading results.
dc.identifier.doi10.24818/18423264/59.3.25.15
dc.identifier.issn0424-267X
dc.identifier.issn1842-3264
dc.identifier.issue3
dc.identifier.orcid0000-0002-9194-1679
dc.identifier.orcid0000-0003-3389-9270
dc.identifier.orcid0000-0001-6850-115X
dc.identifier.scopus2-s2.0-105017092979
dc.identifier.scopusqualityQ3
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.24818/18423264/59.3.25.15
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12899/5336
dc.identifier.volume59
dc.identifier.wosWOS:001580370700015
dc.identifier.wosqualityQ3
dc.indekslendigikaynakWeb of Science
dc.indekslendigikaynakScopus
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherEditura Ase
dc.relation.ispartofEconomic Computation and Economic Cybernetics Studies and Research
dc.relation.publicationcategoryMakale - Uluslararası Hakemli Dergi - Kurum Öğretim Elemanı
dc.rightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
dc.snmzKA_WOS_20260612
dc.subjectGeopolitical Risk
dc.subjectReel Exchange Rate
dc.subjectFourier Adl Cointegration Test
dc.titleHow Geopolitical Risks Influence Real Exchange Rate Dynamics in Turkiye? Evidence from Fourier Cointegration Test with Non-Normal Errors
dc.typeArticle

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