Economic and geopolitical risk factors on environmental sustainability in Türkiye: a time-varying and wavelet coherence analysis
Küçük Resim Yok
Tarih
2026
Dergi Başlığı
Dergi ISSN
Cilt Başlığı
Yayıncı
Springer Science and Business Media B.V.
Erişim Hakkı
info:eu-repo/semantics/closedAccess
Özet
Türkiye is one of the few countries in the world that simultaneously faces economic and geopolitical risk factors, and their impacts on environmental degradation remain highly uncertain. This study aims to investigate the dynamic effects of two major risk factors—economic policy uncertainty and geopolitical risks—on the ecological footprint in Türkiye. Using annual data from 1985 to 2021, the study employs a robust methodological approach, including Fourier cointegration and causality analyses, time-varying coefficients and causality estimations, and partial wavelet coherence. All analyses provide strong and consistent evidence that EPU improves environmental quality, whereas GPR contributes to environmental degradation in Türkiye. Specifically, long-run estimations suggest that EPU mitigates environmental degradation, while GPR exerts pressure on resource consumption. Causality analysis further reveals a unidirectional relationship from EPU to the ecological footprint. Importantly, time-varying analysis highlights that EPU has a decreasing impact on the ecological footprint, particularly after the 2008 global financial crisis, whereas GPR has an increasing impact, due to the conflicts in neighboring countries during the same period. Partial wavelet coherence analysis further confirms the dynamic nature of these associations, particularly highlighting a significant correlation between EPU, GPR, and environmental degradation. These findings underscore the importance of stable economic policies and international cooperation to mitigate geopolitical risks and reduce environmental degradation in Türkiye. © The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature B.V. 2025.
Açıklama
Anahtar Kelimeler
Ecological Footprint, Economic Policy Uncertainty, Geopolitical Risk, Partial Wavelet Coherence, Time-Varying Analysis
Kaynak
Quality and Quantity
WoS Q Değeri
Scopus Q Değeri
Q1
Cilt
60
Sayı
2
