Does geopolitical risk escalate environmental degradation in Turkey? Evidence from a Fourier approach

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dc.contributor.authorKizilkaya, Fatma
dc.contributor.authorKizilkaya, Oktay
dc.contributor.authorMike, Faruk
dc.date.accessioned2026-06-19T06:41:07Z
dc.date.available2026-06-19T06:41:07Z
dc.date.issued2026
dc.departmentMalatya Turgut Özal Üniversitesi
dc.description.abstractThis study examines the long-run impacts of geopolitical risk on carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in Turkey using Shin and Fourier Shin cointegration methods for yearly observations from 1985 to 2019. The cointegration test results reveal a long-run relation between CO2 emissions and geopolitical risk, economic growth, renewable energy, and the population size in Turkey. According to dynamic ordinary least squares estimation, geopolitical risk and renewable energy consumption have negative and statistically significant impacts on CO2 emissions, whereas economic growth and population size have positive and statistically significant effects on CO2 in the long-run. This shows that increases in geopolitical risks tend to reduce CO2 emissions in Turkey, by depressing production in polluting industries as well as economic growth. In addition, the study performs TY and Fourier TY causality analyses to check for consistency (or robustness) in the cointegration results. Accordingly, the Fourier TY test results demonstrate a unidirectional relationship from geopolitical risk and population size to CO2 emissions, whereas the Toda-Yamamoto test procedure indicates no causal relationship between the series in the long run. Overall, increases in geopolitical risks decrease the rate of production and pollution in the polluting sector in Turkey. However, this also means a decrease in economic growth rates for Turkey which focuses its economic policy and strategy on sustainable growth and development. Therefore, it is very important for Turkey to immediately implement an environmental practice that will not harm its economic policies.
dc.description.sponsorshipMalatya Turgut zal University
dc.description.sponsorshipWe appreciate the kind help from Debra E. Soled for proofreading our final draft.
dc.identifier.doi10.1007/s10668-024-05258-1
dc.identifier.endpage7106
dc.identifier.issn1387-585X
dc.identifier.issn1573-2975
dc.identifier.issue3
dc.identifier.orcid0000-0002-9194-1679
dc.identifier.orcid0000-0002-3412-5616
dc.identifier.orcid0000-0002-1028-9341
dc.identifier.scopus2-s2.0-85200035931
dc.identifier.scopusqualityQ1
dc.identifier.startpage7085
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-024-05258-1
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12899/6088
dc.identifier.volume28
dc.identifier.wosWOS:001280820600003
dc.identifier.wosqualityQ2
dc.indekslendigikaynakWeb of Science
dc.indekslendigikaynakScopus
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherSpringer
dc.relation.ispartofEnvironment Development and Sustainability
dc.relation.publicationcategoryMakale - Uluslararası Hakemli Dergi - Kurum Öğretim Elemanı
dc.rightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
dc.snmzKA_WOS_20260612
dc.subjectCo2 Emissions
dc.subjectFourier Cointegration
dc.subjectGeopolitical Risk
dc.subjectTurkey
dc.titleDoes geopolitical risk escalate environmental degradation in Turkey? Evidence from a Fourier approach
dc.typeArticle

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