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    Development and psychometric validation of the pre-earthquake illusion of control perception scale
    (Bmc, 2026) Celebi, Ismet; Gokkaya, Emrah; Demirbilek, Omer
    Background Earthquakes are highly destructive, and their impact depends largely on prior preparedness. Beyond knowledge and experience, psychological perceptions-especially the illusion of control, the unrealistic belief that one can influence uncontrollable events-can reduce motivation to prepare and weaken disaster readiness. This study aimed to develop a valid and reliable instrument to measure adults' pre-earthquake illusion of control. Methods The scale development process followed established psychometric procedures, including content validation, item analysis, Exploratory Factor Analysis (EFA), and Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA). Data were collected from 406 participants aged 18 and older. Result EFA revealed a two-factor structure explaining 59.56% of the total variance, consisting of Perceived Control and Preparedness and Avoidance of Earthquake-Related Anxiety. CFA supported this structure with acceptable fit indices (CFI = 0.944, RMSEA = 0.072). Reliability analyses demonstrated high internal consistency for the total scale (alpha= 0.886) and both subdimensions. Conclusion The resulting 12-item scale demonstrates promising psychometric properties within the present sample and provides an initial instrument for assessing pre-disaster control illusion perceptions in the context of earthquakes. The scale may provide a useful tool for future research examining cognitive factors influencing disaster preparedness and risk communication.
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    Emotional disturbances and psychological resilience among earthquake survivors in temporary shelters: assessing the role of life satisfaction
    (Springernature, 2026) Gokkaya, Emrah; Topal, Mehmet Hanefi; Demirbilek, Omer; Baydemir, Muhammed Bedir
    Objective This study aims to examine the levels of emotional disturbances, psychological resilience, and life satisfaction among earthquake survivors residing in temporary shelters in Hatay province following the 2023 Kahramanmara & scedil;-centred earthquakes. Additionally, it seeks to identify the critical role of life satisfaction. Methodology This study employs a quantitative, correlational research design with data collected from 408 participants selected through purposive sampling. Participants range in age from 18 to 70 years. Data collection utilizes face-to-face surveys administered through a demographic information form, the Brief Psychological Resilience Scale (BPRS), the Satisfaction with Life Scale (SWLS), and the Depression Anxiety Stress Scales-21 (DASS-21). Analyses are performed using JASP (v.0.19.3.0), incorporating descriptive statistics, independent samples t-tests, ANOVA, mediation, and moderation analyses. Findings The results reveal that female and younger earthquake survivors report significantly higher levels of emotional disturbances. Emotional disturbances negatively predict psychological resilience, whereas life satisfaction positively predicts psychological resilience. No meaningful relationship emerges between emotional disturbances and life satisfaction. Moderation analyses demonstrate that life satisfaction significantly moderates the relationship between stress, anxiety, depression, and psychological resilience. However, mediation analyses indicate that neither life satisfaction nor emotional disturbances mediate the relationship between psychological resilience and the other Variables. Conclusion According to the research findings, depression, anxiety and stress negatively affect psychological resilience, while life satisfaction plays a role in increasing vulnerability rather than fulfilling its expected buffering function; it shows that groups such as women, younger generations, and single individuals exhibit higher levels of mood disorders and lower levels of psychological resilience; and that the relationship between educational level and psychological resilience is shaped by cultural context. Therefore, in disaster management processes, rather than focusing solely on increasing life satisfaction, developing goal-oriented psychosocial interventions aimed at reducing mood disorders, community solidarity programs, and psychological support services integrated into the insurance system are critical for sustainable disaster resilience. This study highlights a crucial paradox for post-disaster mental health: life satisfaction, rather than buffering the impact of emotional distress, can unexpectedly increase psychological vulnerability.
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    The Macroeconomic Effects of Earthquakes in Turkey and Sustainable Economic Resilience: A Time Series Analysis, 1990-2023
    (Mdpi, 2025) Ulger Danaci, Ozlem; Gokkaya, Emrah; Yavuz, Kemal; Demirbilek, Omer
    This study examines the macroeconomic impacts of major earthquakes in T & uuml;rkiye using annual data from 1990 to 2023. Despite growing global interest in disaster economics, evidence on how large seismic events shape national economic performance over extended periods remains limited, particularly in emerging economies. Using data from the World Bank, the Central Bank of the Republic of T & uuml;rkiye, and the Disaster and Emergency Management Authority, the analysis incorporates real gross domestic product, gross fixed capital formation, consumer prices, and export capacity. A dummy variable identifies years with high-fatality earthquakes. After confirming stationarity, Johansen cointegration and a Vector Error Correction Model were applied. Results indicate that earthquakes exert a statistically significant negative influence on long-term economic growth. Based on the log-level specification, the long-run equilibrium level of real gross domestic product in earthquake years is approximately 45 percent lower than in non-earthquake years. Investment, price stability, and trade capacity support long-term growth. Model diagnostics confirm stability, normality, and no autocorrelation. These findings highlight the structural economic vulnerabilities created by major earthquakes and underscore that disaster risk reduction and resilient infrastructure policies must be integral components of sustainable growth strategies. The study contributes updated national time-series evidence from a structurally fragile context.