The Macroeconomic Effects of Earthquakes in Turkey and Sustainable Economic Resilience: A Time Series Analysis, 1990-2023
Küçük Resim Yok
Tarih
2025
Dergi Başlığı
Dergi ISSN
Cilt Başlığı
Yayıncı
Mdpi
Erişim Hakkı
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
Özet
This study examines the macroeconomic impacts of major earthquakes in T & uuml;rkiye using annual data from 1990 to 2023. Despite growing global interest in disaster economics, evidence on how large seismic events shape national economic performance over extended periods remains limited, particularly in emerging economies. Using data from the World Bank, the Central Bank of the Republic of T & uuml;rkiye, and the Disaster and Emergency Management Authority, the analysis incorporates real gross domestic product, gross fixed capital formation, consumer prices, and export capacity. A dummy variable identifies years with high-fatality earthquakes. After confirming stationarity, Johansen cointegration and a Vector Error Correction Model were applied. Results indicate that earthquakes exert a statistically significant negative influence on long-term economic growth. Based on the log-level specification, the long-run equilibrium level of real gross domestic product in earthquake years is approximately 45 percent lower than in non-earthquake years. Investment, price stability, and trade capacity support long-term growth. Model diagnostics confirm stability, normality, and no autocorrelation. These findings highlight the structural economic vulnerabilities created by major earthquakes and underscore that disaster risk reduction and resilient infrastructure policies must be integral components of sustainable growth strategies. The study contributes updated national time-series evidence from a structurally fragile context.
Açıklama
Anahtar Kelimeler
Earthquakes, Macroeconomic Effects, Sustainable Development, Time Series Analysis, T & Uuml;Rkiye
Kaynak
Sustainability
WoS Q Değeri
Q2
Scopus Q Değeri
Q1
Cilt
17
Sayı
24
