The Macroeconomic Effects of Earthquakes in Turkey and Sustainable Economic Resilience: A Time Series Analysis, 1990-2023

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dc.contributor.authorUlger Danaci, Ozlem
dc.contributor.authorGokkaya, Emrah
dc.contributor.authorYavuz, Kemal
dc.contributor.authorDemirbilek, Omer
dc.date.accessioned2026-06-19T06:37:40Z
dc.date.available2026-06-19T06:37:40Z
dc.date.issued2025
dc.departmentMalatya Turgut Özal Üniversitesi
dc.description.abstractThis study examines the macroeconomic impacts of major earthquakes in T & uuml;rkiye using annual data from 1990 to 2023. Despite growing global interest in disaster economics, evidence on how large seismic events shape national economic performance over extended periods remains limited, particularly in emerging economies. Using data from the World Bank, the Central Bank of the Republic of T & uuml;rkiye, and the Disaster and Emergency Management Authority, the analysis incorporates real gross domestic product, gross fixed capital formation, consumer prices, and export capacity. A dummy variable identifies years with high-fatality earthquakes. After confirming stationarity, Johansen cointegration and a Vector Error Correction Model were applied. Results indicate that earthquakes exert a statistically significant negative influence on long-term economic growth. Based on the log-level specification, the long-run equilibrium level of real gross domestic product in earthquake years is approximately 45 percent lower than in non-earthquake years. Investment, price stability, and trade capacity support long-term growth. Model diagnostics confirm stability, normality, and no autocorrelation. These findings highlight the structural economic vulnerabilities created by major earthquakes and underscore that disaster risk reduction and resilient infrastructure policies must be integral components of sustainable growth strategies. The study contributes updated national time-series evidence from a structurally fragile context.
dc.identifier.doi10.3390/su172411268
dc.identifier.issn2071-1050
dc.identifier.issue24
dc.identifier.orcid0000-0002-9989-1194
dc.identifier.orcid0000-0002-3872-3330
dc.identifier.orcid0000-0002-1373-3188
dc.identifier.scopus2-s2.0-105025898647
dc.identifier.scopusqualityQ1
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.3390/su172411268
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12899/5149
dc.identifier.volume17
dc.identifier.wosWOS:001647291100001
dc.identifier.wosqualityQ2
dc.indekslendigikaynakWeb of Science
dc.indekslendigikaynakScopus
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherMdpi
dc.relation.ispartofSustainability
dc.relation.publicationcategoryMakale - Uluslararası Hakemli Dergi - Kurum Öğretim Elemanı
dc.rightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
dc.snmzKA_WOS_20260612
dc.subjectEarthquakes
dc.subjectMacroeconomic Effects
dc.subjectSustainable Development
dc.subjectTime Series Analysis
dc.subjectT & Uuml;Rkiye
dc.titleThe Macroeconomic Effects of Earthquakes in Turkey and Sustainable Economic Resilience: A Time Series Analysis, 1990-2023
dc.typeArticle

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