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Öğe Does Economic Policy Uncertainty Matter for Environmental Degradation in Emerging Countries? Fresh Evidence from Fourier Bootstrap ARDL Estimation(Springer, 2026) Doğanlar, Murat; Kızılkaya, Oktay; Mike, Faruk; Albayrak, MuratIn recent years, economic policy uncertainty has initiated a new discussion in environmental economics on the main drivers of environmental degradation. The main goal is to determine whether economic policy uncertainty leads to environmental damage or contributes to environmental quality. For this purpose, researchers commonly employ panel data analyses based on group estimation and use carbon emissions as a proxy for environmental indicators. However, by doing so they overlook country-specific estimations as well as underrepresent the ecological balance. To overcome these shortcomings, in this paper we employ two new approaches. First, we apply novel Fourier bootstrap autoregressive distributed lag estimation, which is the stronger estimation procedure in time-series analysis, to detect individual outcomes. Second, we use the ecological footprint as a proxy for environmental degradation, which reflects the natural balance more holistically and comprehensively than pollution indicators. In this context, our paper examines the impact of economic policy uncertainty on ecological footprint by using some control variables, such as economic growth and energy consumption. Our sample consists of seven emerging countries from 1965 to 2022. Fourier ARDL test results reveal a strong long-run relationship between ecological footprint and economic policy uncertainty, economic growth, and energy consumption for four emerging countries: India, Indonesia, Russia, and Türkiye. The estimations reveal that economic policy uncertainty in these countries contributes to environmental quality in the long run. In this context, it is important for policymakers to implement environmentally friendly growth strategies far from any uncertainty for the sake of sustainable economic development. © The Author(s) 2026.Öğe Does geopolitical risk escalate environmental degradation in Turkey? Evidence from a Fourier approach(Springer, 2026) Kizilkaya, Fatma; Kizilkaya, Oktay; Mike, FarukThis study examines the long-run impacts of geopolitical risk on carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in Turkey using Shin and Fourier Shin cointegration methods for yearly observations from 1985 to 2019. The cointegration test results reveal a long-run relation between CO2 emissions and geopolitical risk, economic growth, renewable energy, and the population size in Turkey. According to dynamic ordinary least squares estimation, geopolitical risk and renewable energy consumption have negative and statistically significant impacts on CO2 emissions, whereas economic growth and population size have positive and statistically significant effects on CO2 in the long-run. This shows that increases in geopolitical risks tend to reduce CO2 emissions in Turkey, by depressing production in polluting industries as well as economic growth. In addition, the study performs TY and Fourier TY causality analyses to check for consistency (or robustness) in the cointegration results. Accordingly, the Fourier TY test results demonstrate a unidirectional relationship from geopolitical risk and population size to CO2 emissions, whereas the Toda-Yamamoto test procedure indicates no causal relationship between the series in the long run. Overall, increases in geopolitical risks decrease the rate of production and pollution in the polluting sector in Turkey. However, this also means a decrease in economic growth rates for Turkey which focuses its economic policy and strategy on sustainable growth and development. Therefore, it is very important for Turkey to immediately implement an environmental practice that will not harm its economic policies.Öğe Economic and geopolitical risk factors on environmental sustainability in Türkiye: a time-varying and wavelet coherence analysis(Springer Science and Business Media B.V., 2026) Yilanci, Veli; Mike, Faruk; Ursavaş, Uğur; Kızılkaya, OktayTürkiye is one of the few countries in the world that simultaneously faces economic and geopolitical risk factors, and their impacts on environmental degradation remain highly uncertain. This study aims to investigate the dynamic effects of two major risk factors—economic policy uncertainty and geopolitical risks—on the ecological footprint in Türkiye. Using annual data from 1985 to 2021, the study employs a robust methodological approach, including Fourier cointegration and causality analyses, time-varying coefficients and causality estimations, and partial wavelet coherence. All analyses provide strong and consistent evidence that EPU improves environmental quality, whereas GPR contributes to environmental degradation in Türkiye. Specifically, long-run estimations suggest that EPU mitigates environmental degradation, while GPR exerts pressure on resource consumption. Causality analysis further reveals a unidirectional relationship from EPU to the ecological footprint. Importantly, time-varying analysis highlights that EPU has a decreasing impact on the ecological footprint, particularly after the 2008 global financial crisis, whereas GPR has an increasing impact, due to the conflicts in neighboring countries during the same period. Partial wavelet coherence analysis further confirms the dynamic nature of these associations, particularly highlighting a significant correlation between EPU, GPR, and environmental degradation. These findings underscore the importance of stable economic policies and international cooperation to mitigate geopolitical risks and reduce environmental degradation in Türkiye. © The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature B.V. 2025.Öğe Environmental policy stringency and fossil energy trade in OECD countries(Springernature, 2026) Alper, Findik Ozlem; Alper, Ali Eren; Mike, Faruk; Kizilkaya, OktayThis study investigates the impact of environmental policy stringency on the trade of fossil fuels-including coal, oil, and natural gas-in 27 OECD countries over the period 1994-2020. Employing panel cointegration and causality techniques, the analysis incorporates non-renewable energy consumption, real effective exchange rate, and financial development as control variables. The results indicate that more stringent environmental regulations significantly reduce fossil fuel trade, suggesting potential improvements in environmental quality. In contrast, higher levels of non-renewable energy consumption and financial development are associated with increased fossil fuel trade, reflecting persistent economic-driven environmental pressures. Additionally, an appreciation in the real effective exchange rate is linked to a reduction in fossil fuel trade. These findings underscore the pivotal role of stringent environmental regulations in mitigating fossil energy trade and enhancing environmental outcomes, while also highlighting the importance of complementary macroeconomic policies and international cooperation in facilitating sustainable energy transitions.Öğe How Geopolitical Risks Influence Real Exchange Rate Dynamics in Turkiye? Evidence from Fourier Cointegration Test with Non-Normal Errors(Editura Ase, 2025) Doganlar, Murat; Mike, Faruk; Kizilkaya, Oktay; Akyildiz, Ibrahim EthemTurkiye is one of the countries that directly and significantly affected by geopolitical risks due to its strategic location. However, the impact of these risks on the real exchange rate-one of the key determinants of macroeconomic stability-remains unclear. This study aims to address this gap in the literature by examining the effects of geopolitical risks on real exchange rate dynamics in Turkiye. In doing so, it also considers essential factors such as terms of trade, real interest rates, and productivity, which are fundamental components of real exchange rate models. The analysis covers quarterly data from 2000:Q] to 2024:Q] and employs the newly developed RALS Fourier ADL cointegration test, which offers a robust methodological framework. The findings reveal that geopolitical risks causes to depreciation in Turkiye's real exchange rate. Specifically, heightened geopolitical risks lead to capital outflows as investors postpone investment decisions, disrupt portfolio investments, and create inflationary pressures. These dynamics result in higher demand for foreign exchange, ultimately driving up the real exchange rate. The study highlights the crucial role of geopolitical risks in modelling Turkiye's real exchange rate. If policymakers estimate exchange rates without accounting for these risks, their assessments may yield misleading results.Öğe İKLİM DEĞİŞİKLİĞİNİN EKONOMİK BÜYÜME ÜZERİNDEKİ ETKİSİ: TÜRKİYE ÜZERİNE AMPİRİK BİR DEĞERLENDİRME(2023) Kızılkaya, Oktay; Mike, FarukBu çalışma Türkiye için iklim değişikliğinin ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkilerini 1990-2021 dönemi yıllık gözlemler doğrultusunda, kesirli frekans değerleri dikkate alabilen Fourier ADL eşbütünleşme testiyle araştırmayı amaçlamaktadır. Bu anlamda Cobb-Douglas üretim fonksiyonundan hareketle, iklim değişikliğinin en önemli parametrelerinden birisi olan sıcaklık düzeyi ile temel ekonomik parametreler (sermaye stoku, işgücü miktarı ve kentleşme) analizlere dâhil edilmiştir. Fourier ADL eşbütünleşme sonuçları seriler arasında uzun dönemli ilişkinin varlığını ortaya koymaktadır. Elde edilen uzun dönem katsayılar ise Türkiye için sıcaklık düzeyi ile ekonomik büyüme arasında uzun dönemde negatif bir ilişkinin bulunduğuna işaret etmektedir. Bu durum küresel ısınmanın neden olduğu iklim krizinin Türkiye’nin ekonomik büyüme performansını olumsuz yönde etkilediğini ortaya koymaktadır. Bu anlamda iklim değişikliğinin olumsuz etkilerini azaltacak yönde küresel işbirliklerine dâhil olunması ve ayrıca özellikle üretim süreçlerinin uyum ve sınırlama politikaları ile desteklenmesi, Türkiye ekonomisinin geleceği açısından oldukça kritik bir önem arz etmektedir. Son olarak sıcaklık parametresi dışında kalan sermaye stoku, işgücü miktarı ve kentleşme değişkenlerinin ise Türkiye’nin ekonomik büyüme performansı üzerinde pozitif etkilere sahip olduğu tespit edilmiştir.Öğe The impact of climate change on aggregate output in middle- and high-income countries(Wiley-Blackwell, 2021) Doğanlar, Murat; Mike, Faruk; Kızılkaya, OktayThis study aims to analyse the impact of climate change on the aggregate output of middle- and high-income countries by using dynamic panel data analysis for yearly observations from 1990 to 2016. Following the Cobb–Douglas production function, the analyses included key economic parameters which are capital stock, labour force, and total factor productivity, and also climate change indicators namely temperature and precipitation. The generalised method of moments test results revealed different findings for middle- and high-income countries. Both the temperature and precipitation variables had a negative and statistically significant impact on aggregate output for middle-income countries. In the high-income countries, the temperature was found to have a positive but negligible effect on aggregate output, whereas precipitation was not found to have any significant effect. Granger causality test is also conducted to check for the consistency of GMM estimation.Öğe Kişi başına enerji tüketiminin yakınsaması: OECD ülkeleri için ampirik bir analiz(Yaşar Üniversitesi, 2021) Mike, Faruk; Kızılkaya, OktayEnerji tüketimi/kullanımı, günümüz üretim faaliyetlerinin vazgeçilmez bir unsuru olarak kabul edilmekte ve toplumların yaşam kalitesini belirleyen önemli bir parametre olarak nitelendirilmektedir. Enerji tüketiminin yakınsaması, sürdürülebilir ekonomik büyüme ve karbondioksit emisyonunu engelleme konularında oldukça önemli politika önerilerine sahiptir. Bu anlamda bu çalışmada OECD ülkeleri arasında kişi başına enerji tüketiminin yakınsama özelliği gösterip göstermediği araştırılmaktadır. Analizler 1965-2019 dönemleri için hem keskin hem de yumuşak ve pürüzsüz kırılmaları dikkate alan panel durağanlık testi ile gerçekleştirilmiştir. Elde edilen bulgular 18 ülke için kişi başına enerji tüketimi serisinin durağan olduğunu ve yakınsama hipotezinin bu ülkeler için geçerli olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır. Bu durumun OECD ülkelerinde girişilen enerji verimliliğindeki artış, enerji yoğunluğundaki azalma ve karbondioksit emisyonlarını azaltma çabalarından kaynaklandığı düşünülmektedir.Öğe Kişi Başına Enerji Tüketiminin Yakınsaması: OECD Ülkeleri İçin AmpirikBir Analiz(2021) Mike, Faruk; Kızılkaya, OktayEnerji tüketimi/kullanımı, günümüz üretim faaliyetlerinin vazgeçilmez bir unsuru olarak kabul edilmekte ve toplumların yaşam kalitesini belirleyen önemli bir parametre olarak nitelendirilmektedir. Enerji tüketiminin yakınsaması, sürdürülebilir ekonomik büyüme ve karbondioksit emisyonunu engelleme konularında oldukça önemli politika önerilerine sahiptir. Bu anlamda bu çalışmada OECD ülkeleri arasında kişi başına enerji tüketiminin yakınsama özelliği gösterip göstermediği araştırılmaktadır. Analizler 1965-2019 dönemleri için hem keskin hem de yumuşak ve pürüzsüz kırılmaları dikkate alan panel durağanlık testi ile gerçekleştirilmiştir. Elde edilen bulgular 18 ülke için kişi başına enerji tüketimi serisinin durağan olduğunu ve yakınsama hipotezinin bu ülkeler için geçerli olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır. Bu durumun OECD ülkelerinde girişilen enerji verimliliğindeki artış, enerji yoğunluğundaki azalma ve karbondioksit emisyonlarını azaltma çabalarından kaynaklandığı düşünülmektedir.Öğe Natural Resource Rents, Geopolitical Risk, and Environmental Pollution: Evidence from Türkiye(2026) Mike, Faruk; Kızılkaya, Oktay; Kızılkaya, FatmaTürkiye’s strategic geographical position and growth trajectory significantly shape its natural resource rents, environmental sustainability, and policy orientation. The primary objective of this study is to examine the long-run relationship between natural resource rents, geopolitical risk, and environmental degradation—proxied by the ecological footprint—in Türkiye over the period 1985–2021. To this end, the study employs the Fourier-based RALS-ADL cointegration approach, which allows for structural breaks and nonlinear adjustments in the data. The empirical results confirm the existence of a long-run equilibrium relationship among the variables. Natural resource rents, economic growth, and energy consumption exert positive and statistically significant effects on the ecological footprint, whereas geopolitical risk has a negative and significant impact. The positive effect of natural resource rents on the ecological footprint can be attributed to intensified resource extraction and energy-intensive production, whereas the negative impact of geopolitical risk likely reflects contractions in economic activity and investment under heightened uncertainty, thereby reducing environmental pressure. The main contribution of this study is to account for multiple and unknown structural changes and to provide more robust long-term inferences using the Fourier-based RALS-ADL methodology. Overall, the evidence emphasizes the necessity of a holistic policy framework that simultaneously considers natural resource management, geopolitical dynamics, economic expansion, and energy consumption in order to achieve environmental sustainability in Türkiye.Öğe Satınalma Gücü Paritesinin OECD Ülkeleri İçin Test Edilmesi: Fourier Kantil Birim Kök Testinden Bulgular(Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi, 29 Temmuz 2021) Mike, FarukSatınalma gücü paritesi, döviz kuru belirleme teorileri arasında en eski ve en tartışmalı yaklaşımlardan biridir. Bu çalışma, satınalma gücü paritesinin uzun dönemli geçerliliğini 36 OECD ülkesi için Fourier kantil birim kök testi ile incelenmeyi amaçlamaktadır. Analizler 1993:1-2018:8 aylık dönemleri kapsamaktadır. Fourier kantil birim kök testi sonuçları, 24 OECD ülkesi için satınalma gücü paritesinin geçerli olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır. Bu durum, söz konusu 24 OECD ülkesinde yer alan döviz kurlarının nispi fiyat değişikliklerine uyum sağladığını ve satınalma gücü paritesi teorisinin bu ülkeler için güvenilir bir döviz kuru belirleme aracı olarak kullanılabileceğini ifade etmektedirÖğe Temperature, Precipitation and Economic Growth: The Case of the Most Polluting Countries(Springer Int Publ Ag, 2024) Doganlar, Murat; Mike, Faruk; Kizilkaya, Oktay; Kardaslar, AhmetThis study analyzes the impact of climate change on economic growth for the top 20 countries in the world that cause the most carbon emissions. Following the Cobb-Douglas production function, we investigate the long-run relationships between temperature/precipitation and economic growth, capital stock, labor force, and productivity using static and dynamic panel data analyses for the period 1990-2019. The results from three different models are examined. Linear model test results reveal that temperature and precipitation do not have statistically any significant impact on economic growth in these countries. Nonlinear model test results indicate that the primary impact of temperature on economic growth is positive and statistically significant, whereas the secondary impact is negative and statistically significant. However, precipitation does not have any statistically significant impact on economic growth. Finally, the results of nonlinear model without control variables are similar to those of nonlinear model. The Dumitrescu and Hurlin panel causality test is also performed to check the consistency of static and dynamic panel estimations, and the results indicate bidirectional causality between temperature and economic growth but no causal relationship between precipitation and economic growth in these countries. Investigated the long-run relationship between economic growth and climate change.Included the most polluting 20 countries in the world.Negative impact of temperature on economic growth was determined.Any significant effect of precipitation on economic growth was determined.Öğe Testing the long-run effects of economic growth, financial development and energy consumption on CO 2 emissions in Turkey: new evidence from RALS cointegration test(Springer, 2021) Doğanlar, Murat; Mike, Faruk; Kızılkaya, Oktay; Karlılar, SelinThis study analyses the long-run effects of economic growth, energy consumption and financial development on carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in Turkey using annual time series data for the period 1965-2018. This research investigates the relationship between the variables using a RALS-EG (residual augmented least squares-Engle and Granger) cointegration test procedure developed by Lee et al. Stud Nonlinear Dyn Econ 19:397-413, (2015). In addition, this study uses a bootstrap causality analysis developed by Hacker and Hatemi-J J Econ Stud 39:144-160, (2012) to specify the causal relationship between the series. RALS cointegration test results show a long-run relationship between CO2 emissions and economic growth, energy consumption and financial development. According to a dynamic ordinary least squares estimation, economic growth has a negative and statistically significant effect on CO2 emissions, whereas energy consumption and financial development have positive and statistically significant effects on CO2 emissions in the long run. In particular, energy consumption is the most effective parameter of environmental pollution in Turkey. However, the causality test results indicate a unidirectional causal relationship from financial development to CO2 emissions, economic growth and energy consumption. Increasing the investment in renewable energy sources will be an effective policy tool to improve the environmental quality in Turkey.Öğe Testing the validity of purchasing power parity in alternative markets: Evidence from the fourier quantile unit root test(Borsa İstanbul, 2020) Doǧanlar, Murat; Mike, Faruk; Kızılkaya, OktayThis study analyzes the long-run validity of purchasing power parity (PPP) in three types of market economies—developed, emerging, and frontier markets—using the Fourier quantile unit root test. The analyses are conducted on 45 countries, including 10 developed, 20 developing, and 15 frontier market economies, using monthly observations from 1993:1 to 2018:8. Conventional, nonlinear, and Fourier-type unit root tests are also employed for this purpose. The Fourier quantile unit root test results provide more evidence than other tests on the validity of PPP, showing that it is valid in 8 developed, 11 emerging, and 7 frontier market economies.Öğe The innovation exodus: how Turkiye's brain drain challenges technological progress(Routledge Journals, Taylor & Francis Ltd, 2025) Mike, Faruk; Akyildiz, Ibrahim Ethem; Doganlar, Murat; Kizilkaya, OktayBrain drain refers to the emigration of highly educated individuals to other countries in pursuit of better professional, academic, or economic opportunities. This phenomenon differs from human capital, which denotes the proportion of university graduates within the total domestic population and reflects the overall skill level and innovation potential of the resident workforce. This study examines the long-run effects of brain drain on technological advancement in Turkiye, using annual data from 1990 to 2022. By employing Fourier ADL and RALS Fourier ADL cointegration techniques, the study provides robust empirical evidence on the adverse impact of brain drain on Turkiye's innovation ecosystem. The results indicate that brain drain significantly impedes technological progress by depleting the domestic talent pool, thereby weakening research and development (R&D) capacity. Specifically, the negative and statistically significant effects of R&D expenditures and total patent applications - two key indicators of technological innovation - on brain drain are confirmed. Conversely, economic growth, human capital accumulation, and trade openness positively contribute to technological advancement, suggesting that Turkiye's integration into global markets may partially offset the negative consequences of talent migration. Potential policy measures include incentivizing the return migration of skilled professionals, strengthening research institutions, and fostering collaborations between the diaspora and domestic enterprises.Öğe The Role of Energy Consumption and Economic Growth on Human Development in Emerging (E-7) Countries: Fresh Evidence from Second-Generation Panel Data Analyses(Politechnika Lubelska, 2024) Kizilkaya, Oktay; Kizilkaya, Oktay; Akar, Gokhan; Mike, FarukThis study aims to examine the impacts of energy consumption and economic growth on the human development index of seven emerging countries (E-7) with high economic performance for yearly observations from 1992 to 2021. The analyses were carried out with second -generation panel data analyses: (i) Panel cointegration test with structural breaks proposed by Westerlund (2006), (ii) augmented mean group estimator recommended by Eberhardt and Bond (2009), and (iii) Dumitrescu and Hurlin (2012) panel causality test. The empirical model also included trade openness and urbanization parameters as control variables. The panel cointegration test outcomes reveal the presence of a long -run relation among the human development index and energy consumption, economic growth, urbanization, and trade openness for all countries. Augmented mean group test outcomes signify that energy consumption, economic growth, and trade openness have positive and statistically significant impacts on the human development index, whereas urbanization does not have any statistically significant impact in the longrun. Finally, panel causality test results signify that there is a bidirectional relation between the human development index and energy consumption, economic growth, and trade openness and also a unidirectional relation from urbanization to the human development index in E-7 countries. All these findings indicate that the main macroeconomic indicators have an important role on the human development index in E-7 countries. In this context, these countries should implement a more effective and innovative economic policy for Sustainable development goals.Öğe Türkiye Ekonomisinde Döviz Kuru ve Dış Ticaret Dengesi İlişkisi: Fourier Eşbütünleşme Testinden Yeni Bulgular(2022) Mike, Faruk; ÖZAYTÜRK, GÜRÇEM; Kızılkaya, OktayBu çalışma, Türkiye ekonomisindeki döviz kuru değişimlerinin dış ticaret dengesi üzerindeki kısa ve uzun dönemli etkilerini 1998:1-2019:3 çeyreklik gözlemler doğrultusunda incelemeyi amaçlamaktadır. Seriler arasında eşbütünleşme ilişkisinin varlığını araştırmak amacıyla Fourier KPSS eşbütünleşme testi uygulanmıştır. Eşbütünleşme analizi sonuçları Türkiye için uzun dönemde dış ticaret dengesi ile reel efektif döviz kuru, ulusal gelir ve yabancı gelir arasında eşbütünleşme ilişkisinin varlığına işaret etmektedir. Elde edilen bulgular, reel efektif döviz kuru ve yabancı gelir düzeyinin dış ticaret dengesi üzerinde pozitif ve istatistiksel olarak anlamlı, buna karşın ulusal gelir düzeyinin ise negatif ve istatistiksel olarak anlamlı katsayılara sahip olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır. Son olarak çalışmada kısa dönem etkileri araştırmak amacıyla Hata Düzeltme Modeli oluşturulmuştur. Kısa dönem tahmin sonuçları, uzun dönem bulgularına benzer şekilde, reel efektif döviz kuru ve yabancı gelir düzeyi için pozitif, ulusal gelir düzeyi için ise pozitif ve istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bulgulara işaret etmektedir.Öğe Unemployment hysteresis in Central and Eastern European countries during EU-membership(Akademiai Kiado Zrt, 2024) Kizilkaya, Oktay; Mike, Faruk; Kizilkaya, FatmaThis study aims to analyse the time series properties of the unemployment rates in 10 Central and Eastern European countries after joining the European Union. Three types of unit root tests were conducted: (1) linear unit root tests, namely ADF, PP, LM, and RALS-LM tests; (2) LM and RALS-LM unit root tests with two structural breaks; and (3) LM and RALS-LM unit root tests with Fourier function. The results reveal that the hysteresis hypothesis is valid for Bulgaria, Czechia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania and Slovenia, whereas the structuralist hypothesis is valid for Estonia and Poland. However, the natural rate hypothesis holds only for Slovakia.
